Title: Predictive Model Validation for System Risk Management

Speaker: Byeng Dong Youn, University of Maryland

Date/Time: Thursday, June 26, 2008, 10:00am – 11:00 am (MT)

Location: CSRI Building, Rm 90 (Sandia NM), Building 915, Rm N153 (CA)

Brief Abstract: Failures of engineering systems (e.g., vehicle, aircraft) lead to significant reliability and maintenance costs ($200 billion each year in US industry) and human fatalities, such as Ford Explorer Rollover (1998-2000) and the explosion of the Challenger space shuttle (1986). One of the greatest challenges in engineering systems design is eliminating risk of product systems before the design is produced. This talk thus presents a predictive model validation to system risk management. Hierarchical model validation (HMV) is developed for validating predictive system computer models. To make the validation systematic and affordable, HMV is composed of two steps: (1) Top-Down: validation planning and (2) Bottom-Up: validation execution. HMV has been demonstrated using two practical engineering examples: a cellular phone and a tire. Provided a computer model for an engineering system is validated, the remaining challenge in system risk management is system reliability analysis. A complementary interaction method (CIM) is proposed to formulate system reliability explicitly. For its numerical solvers, two sensitivity-free methods are proposed for various engineering applications: (1) eigenvector dimension reduction (EDR) and (2) DR-polynomial chaos expansion (DRPCE). It is found that the DR-PCE method is more desirable for highly nonlinear problems, otherwise EDR is preferable. Some engineering applications will be employed to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approaches to system risk management.

Bio: Dr. Byeng D. Youn is an assistant professor of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Maryland, College Park. He earned Ph.D. degree from the University of Iowa in 2001. His research goal is to develop rational reliability and design methods based on mathematics, physics, and statistics for use in complex engineering systems. His current research includes risk-based design, prognostics, energy harvester design, and Bioinspired design. His dedication and efforts in research have garnered substantive peer recognition resulting in four notable awards including ASME IDETC Black & Decker Best Paper Award (2001), ISSMO/Springer Prize for a Young Scientist (2004), and ASME IDETC Ford Best Paper Award (2008).

CSRI POC: Laura Swiler, (505) 844-8093