Thomas Sterling Center for Advanced Computing Research and Computer Science and Mathematics Division All technological advances ultimately are driven by need (recognized
or latent) and enabled by an opportunity gap. Together these are represented
by the classic S-Curve where the gap is the vertical distance between
the two asymptotes and the investment barrier, prior to realization,
is the length of the bottom start-up segment. But S-curves are soft-sloped
entities and at any point in time, they feel like straight lines often
misconstrued as implying a perpetual future direction. However, the ultimate
emergent behavior is saturation and the resulting stagnation due to their
insidious property of one and only one point of inflection; that is S-curves
bend twice. This talk will describe the realm of the S-curve in technology
development with past examples and apply it to the current domain of
high performance computing and its implication for future strategic goals. |